Mutual uncertainty colors every aspect of U.S.-China relations. America worries that China will use its growing military power in pursuit of its expanding interests. Beijing fears the U.S. will try to prevent it from achieving its comprehensive modernization goals. Thus, there lingers an omnipresent perception on both sides that the United States and China are on a road to inevitable confrontation. Policy makers and defense planners on each side are, therefore, required to hedge against some future, undefined, military threat from the other which, in turn, feeds mutual distrust. This paper offers a range of policy steps that would work to overcome mutual uncertainty and advance responsibly U.S.-China relations. Changes in the global strategic environment, China's prospects for development, and the full range of vital and important bilateral security issues are explored, including both sides' goals, interests, and strategic perspectives regarding these issues. Bilateral military relations are also addressed, including why and how they should support the overall security relationship. Ultimately, this paper is intended to provide a framework for a balanced debate on China policy that would contribute to improved stability and predictability in U.S.-China relations.

"October 1999."

Background—The Roots of Uncertainty -- A World in Transistion -- U.S.-China Strategic Relations: A Balanced, Long-term Approach -- Vital Bilateral Issues-Conflict or compromise? -- U.S.-China Military Relations in a Strategic Context -- Epilogue.